Just a quick note 5 minutes before the draft – While more common to the NFL draft (and Card’s draft picks in particular) the “winners” of the NBA draft can be saddled with a millstone around their neck, in the form of overpaid, underperforming high first-round draft picks.
Paging Kwame Brown to the white courtesy phone, please. Kwame Brown, to the white courtesy phone.
Looking over the mock draft boards, it is millstone-central. The consensus #1 pick is a guy who can jump, and overpowered smaller college players, but he can’t dribble or shoot. Mmmmm, sounds like just the guy to succeed in a league where every big man is, well, big. Mr. Griffin might well do ok, but I’ll go out on a limb and say winning this draft will be more curse than blessing. Number 2 is Ricky Rubio, a guy that, according to the ESPN board “lacks ideal speed and athleticism.” Ah yes, just like CP3. Or something.
I like thinking about a pick’s NBA comparables when predicting success; that is, who is he similar to? For Blake – decent but not great size, strong, athletic, no jump shot, no ball handling skill. KMart? Beasley-lite? Lou Amundsen? Don’t laugh – how much better is Griffin’s skill set (not talent) than Sweet Lou? And if he is better, how much is the difference worth? I’m here to say it ain’t first pick money.
And before you say “it’s not my money, I don’t care,” remember that it’s a salary cap league and Sarver doesn’t much like going over the cap, so we’re in a zero sum game for salary dollars. Dollars sunk in a guaranteed contract for Griffin handcuff your flexibility.
Of course, based on the Suns’ karma with the Atlanta protected pick, this would be the year the Suns go “frozen envelope” and win the lottery. If so, here’s hoping they sell this one to the Blazers, too.
Dr. Greenbaumbdouchebag:
I’m afraid you are misinforming your 2 readers regarding NBA teams’ financial obligations to first round picks – there is a lockstep payscale. Perhaps you and Andy Pettite have the same issues of “misremembering.” Winning the NBA lottery is far from the financial disaster and misfortune of having to pay $40 million guaranteed to Matthew Stafford. Whoever ends up with Griffin has him for 3 years at about $12.5 million – a bargain by NBA standards – with a team option for the 4th year for about another $6 million. Therefore you can bail on Griffin after 3 years if you so choose – and will have paid only about 2/3 of what one year with Amare Stoudemire would cost you. In the NBA, you can kick the tires before making a real longterm and franchise changing financial commitment. This is a great situation for NBA teams.
You lost any remaining credibility by comparing Griffin’s game to that of Admundson. Sweet Lou can’t make a shot outside of 6 inches from the rim, and has hands that make Ben Wallace’s mitts seem like Larry Fitzgerald’s.
For such an extended lapse between your last effort on SoD, I have to say I’m underwhelmed and disappointed with the effort.
Mr. Fanclub CEO: the NFL draft to NBA draft comparison was an analogy, not a direct comparison. A direct comparison would be Roy Marble to, oh, how about, Michael Ray Richardson?
Yes, NBA rookie contracts don’t sink you like NFL rookie contracts can. The Lions are Epic Fail. The real point, that you so conveniently missed, is that tying up dollars in a guy that built his reputation by dunking on 6’4″ guys that will be playing in Turkey in two years is not a recipe for success. Those guys are widely available for 1/3 the cost and on shorter deals. So, yes, even at $13MM/3 years, you are overpaying. It all adds up. Now, if you think he’s a value at that price, our opinions differ on his skills but not on the underlying premise.
Is the contract a team-killer by itself? No, it’s not the Starbury/Allen Houston/Chris Webber contract. But repeatedly overpay for underperformance and you’re sunk.
As long as we’re naysaying winning the lottery, I think the real curse is the Curse of the Chump, wherein you pick a guy who underperforms compared to the majority of the next nine picks. I like this curse because it extends to the #2 and maybe even #3 picks. This curse is worse because it haunts you forever (See: Portland) rather than the 3-year rookie contract (See: Portland).
I love Fanclub CEO’s vehemence! Of all the critics on the internet, you are one of them.
I’ll defend the good doctor as such:
Griffin does have a garbage jumper…and he shoots less than 60% from the line.
Suns get the 14th pick! For my money, I’d take Budinger. If the Suns need anything, its SG/SF’s who can run and jump but can’t play defense or shoot.